Shaheen-II
A report in the May/June 2007 issue of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists stated that Pakistan is in the process of deploying its most powerful ballistic missile, the Shaheen-II/ Hatf-VI, which has a range of 2,000-2,500 km. [53] Satellite imagery from June 2005 made available to the Federation of Atomic Scientists for this report revealed 15 Transporter Erector Launchers at Pakistan’s National Defense Complex that were in different phases of being combined with their missiles. [54] The Pakistani government dismissed the report as “part fact and part fiction.” [55] The Shaheen-II, which is said to be a response to India’s proposed deployment of the Agni-II (range 2,000 km), can potentially strike targets in most of India. [56] It was last tested in February 2007. [57]Hatf-VII/Babur
Apart from ballistic missile modernization, Pakistan has taken further steps to augment its cruise missile arsenal. On July 26, 2007, Pakistan successfully tested the Hatf-VII/Babur cruise missile, which was test-fired last in March. This subsonic missile, which can carry a nuclear warhead, can be launched from Pakistan’s Agosta submarine and from its F-16 and JF-17 Thunder aircraft. [58] The mating with the Agosta is key to Islamabad’s quest for a second-strike capability. [59] According to the Pakistani military, the missile has “near stealth” capabilities. Since the last test, Pakistani engineers have extended the range of the missile from 500 to 700 km, increasing its ability to reach targets in India, including the capital, New Delhi, with ground-launched or air-launched versions of the system. [60]
One Indian official linked the Babur test to the on-going negotiations between India and the United State on a formal nuclear cooperation agreement, whose successful completion was announced on July 27, 2007. According to one senior official in New Delhi, “the timing may be more than incidental…. They [the Pakistanis] want to remind us about their nuclear capability.” [61] Indeed, within days of the test, as well as the conclusion of the 123 Agreement, Pakistan’s National Command Authority (NCA), which is headed by President Pervez Musharraf and includes top military leaders and nuclear scientists, criticized the Indo-U.S. agreement. In a statement, the NCA warned that the agreement would cause an arms race in the Subcontinent, and that the United States should have considered a package deal that also included Pakistan. [62]
While there was no official reaction by the Indian government to the Babur test, the opposition Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party condemned the launch, stating that this was a violation of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) because of allegations that China had transferred cruise missile technology to Pakistan. [63] The charge was denounced in Islamabad, where officials stated that the
country’s cruise missile program was indigenous. [64] (The Indian BrahMos cruise missile, it may be noted, is a joint India-Russia venture, and Pakistan has alleged in the past that this cooperation between India and Russia is in violation of the MTCR.) [65]The Hatf-VIII or Ra’ad
On August 25, 2007, Pakistan successfully tested its latest cruise missile, the Hatf-VIII, or Ra’ad (“Thunder” in Arabic), a nuclear-capable air-launched cruise missile (ALCM). [66] According to the Pakistan military, the Hatf-VIII provides the Air Force with a “strategic standoff capability.” [67] The officially announced range of the missile is 350 kilometers. [68] The Pakistan military further stated that the Hatf-VIII/Ra’ad has a “low detection probability due to stealth design and materials used in its manufacturing.” [69]
One analyst has stated that the Hatf-VIII is likely to be deployed on Pakistan’s F-16A fighter aircraft or its planned fleet of F-16C warplanes. [70] He further noted that the relatively short range of the missile suggests it is a new design that relies on assistance from an external actor that does not want to violate range and payload limits set by the Missile Technology Control Regime. [71] The regime restricts the transfer of technology by member states for ballistic and cruise missiles that can carry a payload of 500 kilograms to a distance of 300 km or more. Were the Hatf-VIII/Ra’ad based on the Hatf-VII/Babur, the analyst suggested, it would have had a range closer to that of the latter missile. This implied that the Hatf-VIII/Ra’ad was a new system, which was likely built with outside assistance, given Pakistan’s limited indigenous cruise missile design capabilities. [72] At present there is no indication of the deployment schedule for the Hatf-VIII/Ra’ad.
Conclusion
Recent missile developments in India and Pakistan indicate that a missile arms race is well under way in South Asia. This competition is exacerbated by India’s need to address potential strategic adversaries on two fronts. Nonetheless, India’s decision to refrain from building missiles able to strike targets at intercontinental distances is an important sign of restraint, which seems to reflect India’s official doctrine of pursuing only a “credible minimum deterrent.” [73] Pakistan’s missile objectives are more straightforward, and demonstrate a continuing attempt to match India’s missile improvements and, perhaps, to signal its unease with growing ties between New Delhi and Washington.
The F-35B is the short take-off and vertical landing (STOVL) version. The vertical lift generated by the fan just behind the cockpit augments and balances the vertical thrust generated by the downward-swivelling exhaust nozzle, the edge of which is just visible in the photo.
